dissertation on financial performance

The Impact of Globalization on International Finance and Accounting pp 385–393 Cite as

A Literature Review of Financial Performance Measures and Value Relevance

• Nattarinee Kopecká 2  
• Conference paper
• First Online: 30 December 2017

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Part of the Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics book series (SPBE)

Performance measurement comprises several metrics and applications used as a benchmark in business sectors for both internal and external users. For managers, it expresses whether company’s targets are reached and as a way of evaluating risks and returns for shareholders. A variety of performance measures are utilized to almost every operational process, and the area is rather vast. Therefore, the aim of the study is to find out what kinds of financial tools are better linked to market value. The result of the study shows that financial measures appear to be favorable measures for companies providing relevant and meaningful information to shareholders. Especially, return on investment (ROI) and earnings are significantly relevant to market value, while the superiority of EVA still remains unclear. Above all, companies still prefer traditional financial measures to other financial tools.

• Financial measures
• Economic value added
• Market measures
• Value relevance

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Acknowledgments

This paper has been dedicated to the research project "Analysis of strategic management ac-counting relation to company management and performance" (supported by Internal Grant Agency, No. IG 71/2017).

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Department of Management Accounting, University of Economic, Prague, Nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67, Prague 3, Czech Republic

Nattarinee Kopecká

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Kopecká, N. (2018). A Literature Review of Financial Performance Measures and Value Relevance. In: Procházka, D. (eds) The Impact of Globalization on International Finance and Accounting. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68762-9_42

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Nikkhah-Babaei, H. "Analysis of company financial performance." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.381010.

Volgina, Vera. "Postmerger financial performance: econometric analysis." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-16850.

Faruk, Hossan, and Ahsan Habib. "Performance evaluation and ratio analysis of Pharmaceutical Company in Bangladesh." Thesis, University West, Department of Economics and Informatics, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-2516.

The thesis applies performance evaluation of pharmaceutical company in Bangladesh. It means evaluate how well the company performs. The main aim is achieved through ratio analysis of two pharmaceutical (Beximco and Square pharmaceutical) companies in Bangladesh. The main data collection from the annual financial reports on Beximco and square pharmaceutical companies in 2007 to 2008.Different financial ratio are evaluated such liquidity ratios, asset management ratios, profitability ratios, market value ratios, debt management ratios and finally measure the best performance between two companies. The mathematical calculation was establish for ratio analysis between two companies from 2007-2008.It is most important factors for performance evaluation. The graphical analysis and comparisons are applies between two companies for measurement of all types of financial ratio analysis. Liquidity ratio is conveying the ability to repay short-term creditors and it total cash. It determines perform of short term creditor of both pharmaceutical companies under the three categories such as current ratio, quick ratio and cash ratio. Asset management ratio is measurement how to effectively a company to use and controls its assets. Its also quantify into seven categories for both pharmaceutical companies such as account receivable turnover, average collection period, inventory turnover, account payable turnover ,account payable turnover in days ,fixed asset turnover ,total asset turnover. Profitability ratio is evaluate how well a company is performing by analyzing and how profit was earned relative to sales, total assets and net worth for both pharmaceutical companies. Debt coverage ratio is performing that the property insufficient to collect their mortgage for both companies and market value is perform the stockholder to analysis their future market value of the stock market. Overall analyses are measurement the best one between Beximco and Square pharmaceutical companies.

Antonini, Carla. "An empirical analysis of environmental externalities incidence on financial performance." Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/386554.

Aigbefo, Glory, and Mekonen Araia Aseghehey. "Business and Financial Analysis of Arctic Paper Munkedals AB." Thesis, Högskolan Väst, Avd för juridik, ekonomi, statistik och politik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-12138.

Jadi, Diara Md. "An empirical analysis of determinants of financial performance of insurance companies in the United Kingdom." Thesis, University of Bradford, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/14383.

Lewerentz, Eric, and Ellinor Westerberg. "Sentiment analysis of tweets in comparison to a company’s financial performance." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-229766.

Bennett, Andrew L. "An Empirical Longitudinal Analysis of Agile Methodologies and Firm Financial Performance." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10982630.

Agile Software Development methods such as Scrum, SAFe, Kanban, and Large Scale Agile (LeSS) promise substantial benefits in terms of productivity, customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, quality project management overhead, and time to market. As Agile methods have become widespread in the software development industry and begin to take root in the overall business community, there is an increasing need to understand the firm level impact of the implementation of these methods. To build the most effective business case for organizations in and out of the software development industry, it is imperative that a case be made to show that the implementation of Agile frameworks has constituted a competitive advantage. This study investigated the organization level performance impact of switching from traditional methods to the use of Agile frameworks. The results showed that changing from a traditional methodology to an Agile framework resulted in higher return on assets and lower operating expense ratios. The interaction between time and methodology for OER, ROA, or revenues in Table 6 did not show a significant difference, indicating that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Thus, we cannot say whether performance differs as a function of type of agile methodology. That said, the non-parametric sign test shows that the median improvement in Operating Expense Ratios were highest for Scrum while SAFe seemed to show a slightly higher improvement in Return on Assets. On the whole, Scrum seems to outperform SAFe in terms of operating efficiency (as measured by OER) but lags in terms of ROA.

Grada, Ali Salem. "Business performance measurement applied to the UK medium-sized coal mining sector since privatisation." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.326549.

Shiu, Yung-Ming. "Dynamic financial analysis in the insurance industry : a study of current practices, determinants of company performance, and application of dynamic financial analysis." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25183.

Wilson, Robert. "An analysis of factors affecting financial performance in English professional team sports." Thesis, Sheffield Hallam University, 2017. http://shura.shu.ac.uk/20981/.

Peters, James D. "Effect of prime contractor financial position on major weapon system cost and delivery performance." Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 1990. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA242431.

Earmia, Jalal Y. "The financial performance of small and medium sized companies: A model based on accountancy data is developed to predict the financial performance of small and medium sized companies." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/3406.

Ullah, Muhammad. "The Nexus Between Firm's Environmental Performance and Financial Resilience." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne‎ (2017-2020), 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020CLFAD012.

Earmia, Jalal Yousif. "The financial performance of small and medium sized companies : a model based on accountancy data is developed to predict the financial performance of small and medium sized companies." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/3406.

LUCENA, EDUARDO SANTINI DE. "COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES AND BUSINESS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IMPACT: AN ANALYSIS OF THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2011. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=18311@1.

Pålsson, Moa, and Patric Beijer. "Corporate Sustainability Performance and the Risk of Financial Distress : A Panel Data Analysis." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-185346.

Ndebele, Ndumiso. "3-month bond option strategies: an analysis of performance from 1998 to 2010 in the South African market." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11468.

Elsayed, Khaled Kadry. "An investigation of environmental performance, firm life cycle and financial performance : a panel data analysis of UK firms." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.415372.

Wei-Chiung, Yun, and 雲惟炯. "Performance Analysis of Financial Holding Companies." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/91120644527305440699.

Shih, Li-Ching, and 施力中. "The Performance Analysis of Financial Institutions Merger." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/mukufg.

Chen, Lin-Wen, and 陳凌雯. "The performance analysis between financial holding and non-financial holding banks." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59049084859111593467.

Chlupová, Renata. "Analysis of financial performance of a selected enterprise." Master's thesis, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-189893.

Ludwigová, Barbora. "Analysis of financial performance of a selected company." Master's thesis, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-362907.

LI, YING-SIN, and 李英信. "Visualization Financial Performance Analysis For E-Commerce Industry." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3n6979.

Susanti, Stefanie, and 潘淑玉. "Analysis of Financial Performance for E-commerce Companies." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50025444236877614049.

Sun, Wei-Ting, and 孫薇婷. "A CORPORATE SOCIAL PERFORMANCE— CORPORATE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS FOR STAKEHOLDER’S." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/88364744437960295501.

Te, Kung Ching, and 孔慶德. "Corporate Governance, Firm Performance, and Financial Risk：an Emprical Analysis of Financial Holding Companies." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19597709577433354192.

鍾光樺. "Performance Analysis of Stock Recommendations from Professional Financial Magazines." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/21848133404275576979.

Lin, Jui-Ching, and 林瑞晉. "An Analysis Organization Culture, Leadershop Style and Financial Performance." Thesis, 1994. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/29768912491128788985.

LIN, CHIA-WEI, and 林家緯. "Performance Analysis of Stock Recommendations from Professional Financial Magazines." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/b2zwzb.

Bibish, Khaliun, and 卡莉翁. "A Comparison of Financial Performance of Food Companies inMongolia by Using Financial Ratio Analysis." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/52294034387032616683.

CHUNG, HSIAO-LING, and 鍾曉鈴. "Analysis of Financial Consultants’Work Performance, Work Stress and Stress Response under Digital Financial Service." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64227918263699551664.

Lin, Yueh-sung, and 林岳松. "Analysis on Taiwan financial institutions’operational performance—the application of data envelopment analysis." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/93637767013723700839.

Wingard, Hermina Christina. "Financial Performance of Environmentally Responsible South African Listed Companies." Diss., 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27648.

Chen, Yi-Ling, and 陳怡伶. "Choosing Financial Indicators and Establishing Stocks Investment Portfolio Performance Analysis." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36423842423709463060.

Thearmin, Erni, and 鄭美芳. "Financial Performance Analysis of Selected Internet Software and Services Companies." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/30839080414560019328.

Li, Jia-Rong, and 李佳容. "The Analysis of Financial Performance for Non-Profit Proprietary Hospitals." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/958a99.

Tai, Hsing-Hui, and 戴幸卉. "A Competitive Analysis of Autonomous Vehicles Industry with Financial Performance." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6n3s24.

Liou, Wan-Ping, and 劉婉平. "Financial Performance Analysis for Machine Tool Industry with SQL Database." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47tum8.

CHAN, CHIA-LIN, and 詹佳霖. "Visualized Financial Performance Analysis for Semiconductor Assembly and Testing Industry." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/jm7a58.

Cheng, Wen-Sheng, and 鄭文勝. "Financial Performance Analysis for Silicon Wafer Industry Using SQL Database." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/bt5nct.

Lee, Chao-Ju, and 李昭儒. "Analysis of the personality traits and performance of financial commissioner." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28737971041361934446.

HWANG, MEI-JANE, and 黃美珍. "THE COMPARISON ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF HOSPITAL IN TAIWAN." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17502963881531013644.

黃馨眉. "Capital Allocation and Performance Analysis in Financial Holding Company: Empirical Study of Cathay Financial Holdings." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31323869580968987955.

Chang, Ming-Fei, and 張明霏. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Operational Quality and Financial Performance in Financial Holding Companies." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/e3a6s4.

Tseng, Wei-Lun, and 曾偉倫. "Value Chain Analysis and Financial Performance of IT Industry in Taiwan." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98583428911546834511.

Chang, Wen-Nsiang, and 張曜璿. "Assessing with Data Envelopment Analysis- Management Performance of Financial Holding Company." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/67981575333714680132.

Huang, Yin-Chiao, and 黃胤喬. "Dominance, New Products Investment, and Financial Performance - Analysis of Strategy Simulation." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/89113888915923192350.

Wu, Shu-Ling, and 吳淑錂. "Choosing Eight Financial Indicators and Constructing Stocks Investment Portfolio Performance Analysis." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90126354492833668599.

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Dissertation - A Study On Financial Performance Of Select Commercial Banks In India

The purpose of the study is to examine the financial performance of SBI and HDFC Bank, public sector and private sector respectively. The research is descriptive and analytical in nature. The data used for the study was secondary in nature.

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Qualitative & Quantitative data analysis

TO STUDY THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL LEVERAGE ON THE BANKING PERFORMANCE OF UK

[Name of Writer]

[Date of Submission]

[Name of Institution]

Table of Contents

Background of the study.

The following research is aimed towards the effects of financial leverage on the banking performance of UK. In the contemporary business world, the corporate structure is known as one of the issues that are considered to be very puzzling in the literature of corporate finance (Ku and Yen, 2016). The concept of the capital structure is known as such a concept in which the debt and equity are regarded as the strategic choice for the managers of the organization, specifically in the banking sector. The decision of capital structure is considered to be an important decision for the managerial role as it influences the return and risk of the shareholders. The capital structure decision mainly affects the market value of the share and the banks would have to plan that capital structure at the initial phase at the time of inception (Afolabi et al., 2019).

Principally, whenever there are funds which need to be raised for the financial investment purposes, there is an involvement of the capital structure decision. In the banking sector, it is analysed that there is a need of the debt and equity for financing the investments and in this process, the preference shares are also used (Bhayani and Ajmera, 2018).  Financial leverage is known as the ratio of the fixed charge sources for funding like preference shares for the equity of the owners and the debt in the capital structure. The decisions that are related to the financial leverage is considered as very important as the performance of the organization is mainly affected by the such decisions, hence, the financial managers in the banking sector should perform their duties with the cautions and the focus over the decisions regarding the debt-equity mix (Ku and Yen, 2016). Thus, the study had been directed for exploring the influence of the financial leverage on the performance of the banking industry in the UK.

Aims and Objectives of the study

The main aim of conducting this research is to evaluate and measure the effects of financial leverage on the performance of the banking industry in the UK. The objectives that are focused in the study plays a major role in order to achieve the aim of the study in a respective manner. The objectives designed for the study had been presented below: 

• To study the concept and significance of financial leverage
• To identify factors affecting the performance of an organisation
• To evaluate the impact of financial leverage on the banking performance of the UK
• To provide recommendations on the improvisation of banking performance through financial leverage in the UK.

Methodology

The design which is followed in order to conduct the study mainly reflects the nature of the study which is mostly categorized in two types that are qualitative and quantitative research design (Kumar, 2019). For the research, the quantitative research design is followed in which data would be tested by using mathematical and statistical tests. By relying on the existing studies, it is investigated that most of the studies have been conducted over the same topic by using a quantitative research design that is why this method is used for the study. For the study, the primary data is collected through questionnaire, interviews and observations which mostly comprise of new information. Whereas on the other hand, secondary data consists of the data that is already available on the internet in which web link, books and columns etc. are included. The main purpose of the study was analysing the banks of UK; therefore, five top banks of the UK are involved in the study that are HSBC, Barclays, Halifax, Natwest and Lloyds. In order to measure the financial leverage of banks two metrics, debt to asset and debt to equity are used whereas in order to measure the performance of banking the metrics like ROA, ROE and Net profit margins are used. The data will be taken for the years mentioned as 2005-2018. Correlation and regression tools are used in order to analyses the gathered data. The variable description is presented as,

Afolabi, A., Olabisi, J., Kajola, S.O. and Asaolu, T.O., 2019. Does leverage affect the financial performance of Nigerian firms?.  Journal of Economics & Management ,  37 , pp.5-22.

Bhayani, S.J. and Ajmera, B., 2018. AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON EFFECT OF FINANCIAL LEVERAGE ON FIRM’S PERFORMANCE AND VALUATION OF SELECTED PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES IN INDIA.  Indian Journal of Accounting (IJA) Vol ,  50 , p.2.

Ku, Y.Y. and Yen, T.Y., 2016. Heterogeneous effect of financial leverage on corporate performance: A quantile regression analysis of Taiwanese companies.  Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies ,  19 (03), p.1650015.

Kumar, R., 2019. Research methodology: A step-by-step guide for beginners. Sage Publications Limited.

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Petrobras: Attractively Valued And Well-Positioned To Absorb Industry Tailwinds

• Petrobras is a generous company in terms of dividend policy, with a high dividend yield and the ability to generate substantial free cash flow.
• The company's financial performance has been volatile over the decade, but its profitability demonstrated solid resilience even during the deep crisis during the global lockdown of 2020-2021.
• The stock is attractively valued, with potential upside depending on conservative dividend growth assumptions, and the company is well-positioned to absorb industry tailwinds.

Aleksandr_Vorobev

Investment thesis

Petrobras ( NYSE: PBR ) is a very generous company when we speak from the dividend policy perspective. The dividend yield has been massive since the 2022 oil prices spike. According to my analysis, oil prices are very likely to stay higher for longer and PBR's ability to generate a substantial free cash flow margin gives me the high conviction that dividend is safe. Moreover, according to my valuation analysis, the stock is attractively valued even under conservative dividend growth assumptions. The risks of investing in oil and gas companies are substantial, but I think that the potential benefits outweigh all the risks and uncertainties. With that being said, I assign PBR a "Buy" rating.

Company information

Petrobras is a Brazilian oil and gas behemoth employing over 45 thousand employees, including subsidiaries across the world.

The company's fiscal year ends on December 31. The business is operated through three main segments: Exploration and Production [EP], Refining, Transportation and Marketing [RTM], and Gas and Power [GP]. According to the latest annual SEC filing , the EP segment contributed 85% to the total FY 2022 net income.

Compiled by the author based on the latest annual SEC filing

As an oil and gas company, Petrobras significantly depends on trends in energy commodity prices. That said, its financial performance has been very volatile over the past decade with annual revenue bottoming at $52 billion in FY 2020 and achieving the decade's high of $121 billion in FY 2022. I would like to highlight that PBR's profitability has improved massively over the decade, as its operating margin during the deep crisis of FY 2020 was higher than in the last year of the previous oil and gas supercycle, FY 2013. Last year's spike in crude oil prices due to sanctions against Russian oil after its invasion of Ukraine was a massive positive tailwind for Petrobras. The company generated a staggering 32.3% levered free cash flow [FCF] margin in FY 2022.

Author's calculations

Despite having a staggering over 20% levered FCF margin over the last three years, I cannot say that the company's balance sheet is a fortress. Despite the fact that the leverage ratio might look somewhat moderate at below 1, the net indebtedness of $46 billion is massive, and the notable part of the debt is short-term. The major reason why the balance sheet strength does not align with wide FCF margins is the company's very generous dividend policy. After a recent revision, the payout ratio was trimmed to 45% of the FCF, compared to 60% in the previous policy. Such an aggressive dividend policy is because the company is controlled by the Brazilian Federal Government, and profit from the country's major oil company is vital to finance governmental projects and initiatives. With that being said, I do not expect a rapid improvement of the company's balance sheet, even in the current environment of high energy commodity prices. But, at the same time, this also indicates that PBR's generous dividend payout is safe.

Seeking Alpha

The latest quarterly earnings were released on August 3, when the company missed revenue consensus estimated by a notable margin but successfully outperformed expectations around the bottom line. Unsurprisingly, revenue dipped YoY by almost 35% as last year's biggest spike in oil price occurred exactly in Q2 and prices started moderating in the second half of FY 2022. The adjusted EPS followed the top line and shrank YoY from $1.33 to $0.92.

The upcoming quarter's earnings release is scheduled for November 9. The revenue decline is expected by consensus to decelerate as the quarterly expectation of $25.7 billion indicates an 8% YoY decline. This is a significant improvement compared to Q2.

Now, let me switch to the longer-term prospects of PBR. There are multiple reasons why I think that we are amid the new oil supercycle now. The major positive catalyst to keep oil prices elevated for multiple years is substantial underinvestment in capex due to the era of low commodity prices between 2014 and 2021, multiplied by a massive COVID-19-related crisis for the industry. The accumulated global volume of investments in oil and gas exploration and production is the primary driver for the supply side. The oil output can only occur if new wells are drilled, or existing ones are intensified, but it also requires substantial capex.

The ongoing biggest war in Europe since WWII where Russia, one of the world's largest oil producers is involved, and its economy is now isolated with the help of sanctions. According to WSJ , this war can run for years. If that is the case, around 10% of the world's total oil output will stay under sanctions for longer, significantly weighing on the supply side of the macroeconomic equation. The recent military escalation between Israel and Hamas also brings vast geopolitical uncertainty to the Middle East, where some other major oil producers are located.

Last but not least, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve [SPR] has also been one of the strong factors affecting crude oil prices as the country is by far the largest oil consumer . Joe Biden's administration was aggressive in using the Reserve last year to fight inflation, but now the SPR is running very low . It seems that the world's largest economy will start refilling its SPR soon and that is also likely to be a solid positive catalyst for oil prices.

Overall, I think that Petrobras is a strong global oil and gas player given its strong profitability improvement. This makes the company well-positioned to absorb multiple industry tailwinds, which I have described above. PBR's substantial indebtedness might have been a significant risk if energy commodity prices were flying low, but I am comfortable with the current balance sheet in the current environment of high crude oil prices.

The stock demonstrated a massive rally with a 66% year-to-date price increase this year, significantly outperforming the broader U.S. stock market and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF ( EWZ ). It is also important to highlight that PBR also outperformed the U.S. Energy sector ( XLE ) by a very wide margin this year. Seeking Alpha Quant assigns the stock a high "A" valuation grade because current ratios are substantially lower than the sector median and historical averages.

Now, let me proceed with the dividend discount model [DDM] simulation. I use an elevated 12% WACC, considering country risks and inherent volatility in energy commodity prices. Consensus dividend estimates forecast an FY 2024 payout of $1.47, which I will incorporate into my DDM calculations. Dividend growth is always tricky to project due to the substantial volatility in oil companies' profits so that I will simulate two different scenarios. I consider both of them fairly conservative to implement for my analysis.

According to my DDM calculations, the stock is attractively valued, with the upside potential varying from 7% to 20%, depending on the dividend growth assumptions. My fair price estimation is at the midpoint between the two ends of the range, i.e., $17.4 per share, meaning approximately 13% upside potential.

Risks to consider

Operating within the oil and gas industry exposes Petrobras to a high degree of vulnerability to swings in energy commodity prices. Potential investors should be aware that oil pricing is influenced not only by the immediate supply and demand dynamics but also by the impact of breaking news, rumors, and decisions made by a very limited group of key individuals in oil-exporting countries. While it is evident that, over the long term, prices eventually align with fundamental market factors, short-term fluctuations in the oil market can be drastic. Consequently, the stock prices of oil and gas companies, including Petrobras, tend to exhibit considerable volatility and are heavily affected by prevailing sentiments regarding energy commodity markets.

Petrobras also faces substantial operational risks as it conducts complex and high-risk operations, especially related to its offshore activities. The company is extensively involved in offshore drilling and exploration, which presents unique risks and challenges. Deepwater drilling means the company must handle high pressure, extreme depths, and harsh sea conditions. Equipment failures or a well blowout might lead to substantial downtime and safety hazards. In case of pollution due to the company's fault, Petrobras might face substantial costs and significant reputational damage. For example, as a result of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Mexican Gulf in 2010, BP, the project operator, paid more than $65 billion in cleanup costs, charges, and penalties.

Bottom line

To conclude, PBR is a "Buy". The company demonstrates substantial profitability improvement and is now well prepared to absorb positive industry trends, which I expect to sustain over multiple years. The valuation is attractive and the company pays almost half of its FCF in dividends, which I consider a gift amid the beginning of a new oil and gas supercycle.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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